Jan 24, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 24 06:34:15 UTC 2022 (20220124 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220124 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220124 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220124 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220124 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220124 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 240634

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and
   southern Florida on Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   An expansive surface high is forecast to move from the northern
   Plains southeastward into the Mid MS Valley. Continental air mass
   associated with this area of high pressure will result in a dry and
   stable conditions across the majority of the central and eastern
   CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where low-level moisture
   advection is anticipated Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning
   ahead an approaching surface low. Dry conditions are anticipated
   across the western CONUS as well, as a shortwave trough moves
   southeastward across the Intermountain West and upper ridging begins
   building along the West Coast in its wake.

   ...FL...
   Parent shortwave trough for the approaching surface low will be
   displaced to its north and east, limiting lift and keeping mid-level
   temperatures warm across much of the FL Peninsula. Even so, some
   elevated thunderstorms are still possible as this shortwave trough
   moves across the northern FL Peninsula Tuesday afternoon. Additional
   thunderstorms may develop Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
   across central and southern portions of the FL Peninsula.
   Aforementioned warm mid-level temperatures will temper instability,
   with the time of day also acting to reduce potential buoyancy,
   particularly for any surface-based parcels. These factors suggest
   thunderstorm coverage will be rather limited across the region, with
   the severe thunderstorm threat also tempered by the meager buoyancy.
   Greatest severe potential appears to be across southwest FL early
   Wednesday morning, where the chance of surface-based buoyancy is
   highest. Even so, current severe probabilities in that region are
   too low to outlook.

   ..Mosier.. 01/24/2022

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