Jan 24, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 24 17:05:41 UTC 2022 (20220124 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220124 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220124 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220124 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220124 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220124 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 241705

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1105 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated weak thunderstorms are expected across portions of central
   and southern Florida on Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large-scale upper trough will persist across eastern Canada, the
   Great Lakes and northeastern states, with moderate westerly flow
   aloft across the southern states. Within this band of flow, a
   shortwave trough will move quickly eastward from LA and MS to GA/FL
   by 00Z, losing amplitude over time. A weak surface low will
   coincidentally move from the northern into the eastern Gulf of
   Mexico, with a cold front slowly moving south across FL through the
   period.

   Weak elevated instability is forecast to develop eastward toward the
   FL Peninsula mainly after 00Z, and sporadic lightning flashes within
   the broader precipitation areas may develop near the cold front.
   SBCAPE may reach far southwestern portions of the state by 12Z
   Wednesday, with values up to 500 J/kg. However, most of the
   thunderstorms are forecast to remain over the Gulf of Mexico at this
   time.

   ..Jewell.. 01/24/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z