Jan 25, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 25 06:39:49 UTC 2022 (20220125 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220125 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220125 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220125 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220125 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220125 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 250639

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and
   southern Florida Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress through
   the broadly cyclonic flow in place over the CONUS, tracking from its
   early period position over the NM/AZ border eastward across the
   southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. At the same time, a pair
   of shortwave troughs are expected to move through the northern
   stream. The easternmost shortwave will move through the Northeast
   States while the westernmost shortwave moves from the Canadian
   Prairie Provinces southwestward through the northern Plains, Upper
   Midwest, and much of Ontario. Progression of these shortwaves will
   help maintain broad upper troughing across the central and eastern
   CONUS. Farther west, an upper ridge is expected to gradually build
   eastward, ending the period centered along the West Coast.

   An expansive area of high pressure will dominate the sensible
   weather across much of the central and eastern CONUS. The only
   exception is across central and southern FL, where modest low-level
   moisture will support thunderstorms in the vicinity of a weak cold
   front.

   ...Central/Southern FL...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible over this region as the cold
   front gradually shifts southward. Dewpoints ahead of the front will
   likely be in the low to mid 60s across central FL, with slightly
   higher values farther south across southern FL. Even so, instability
   will be modest, tempered by warm mid-level temperatures. Low-level
   flow will also be relatively weak, but enhanced mid-level flow will
   still result in moderate deep-layer vertical shear. Overall
   environmental conditions appear supportive of a strong storm or two,
   but the modest buoyancy and weak low-level flow both work against a
   more substantial severe risk. Heights across the region are also
   neutral or maybe slightly rising with any large-scale forcing for
   ascent negligible. These factors are expected to minimize the
   overall severe risk, precluding the need for any severe
   probabilities with this forecast.

   ..Mosier.. 01/25/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z