Jan 27, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 27 06:27:31 UTC 2022 (20220127 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220127 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220127 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220127 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220127 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220127 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 270627

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 AM CST Thu Jan 27 2022

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

   ...Synopsis...
   An amplified upper pattern is forecast to be in place across the
   CONUS early Friday, consisting of an upper ridge over the western
   CONUS and an upper trough over the central and eastern CONUS. The
   western CONUS upper ridging is expected to dampen throughout the
   period while gradually shifting eastward. The upper trough will also
   shift eastward as an embedded shortwave trough progresses through
   its base. This shortwave will likely deepen as it moves eastward
   while also transitioning from a positive tilt on Friday to an
   increasingly negative tilt by Saturday morning.

   Strong forcing for ascent will accompany this shortwave trough as it
   moves across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast/FL.
   However, predominantly offshore low-level trajectories will prevent
   moisture return ahead of this shortwave, precluding the buoyancy
   needed for thunderstorm development. 

   Some modest low-level moisture will be in place across FL, but
   limited low-level convergence and displacement south of stronger
   forcing for ascent should preclude thunderstorm development. A flash
   or two is also possible within the warm air advection across the
   coastal NC/Outer Banks, but coverage over land areas should be less
   than 10 percent as the higher thunderstorm coverage remains well
   offshore.

   ..Mosier.. 01/27/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z