Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 290523
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 PM CST Fri Jan 28 2022
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough over the eastern U.S. will shift east on
Sunday. However, northwesterly mid/upper deep-layer flow will be
maintained from the northern Plains toward the Atlantic coast as a
series of shortwave troughs migrate through larger-scale flow.
Surface high pressure over the Midwest will develop eastward toward
the Carolinas by the end of the period. This will maintain
continental trajectories across much of the U.S. east of the
Rockies, resulting in stable conditions and precluding thunderstorm
activity.
The exception will be across parts of western into central TX. An
upper low and attendant trough is forecast to be positioned over the
lower CO Valley/northwest Mexico Sunday morning. This system will
shift east and emerge over TX by Monday morning. In response, lee
surface troughing will develop over the central/southern High Plains
and southerly low-level flow will increase. Prior frontal intrusions
deep into the Gulf of Mexico will limit stronger moisture return,
with 50s dewpoints reaching central TX and near 60 F dewpoints along
the Lower/Middle TX Coast. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and
increasing midlevel moisture will result in weak elevated
instability (100-200 J/kg MUCAPE). This could support a few
thunderstorms mainly after 00z, though severe convection is not
expected.
..Leitman.. 01/29/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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