Corpus Christi, TX...Victoria, TX...Kingsville, TX...Alice, TX...Portland, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
14,760
725,856
Corpus Christi, TX...Victoria, TX...Kingsville, TX...Alice, TX...Portland, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
14,819
726,247
Corpus Christi, TX...Victoria, TX...Kingsville, TX...Alice, TX...Portland, TX...
SPC AC 300539
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Sat Jan 29 2022
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the Lower and Middle Texas Coast vicinity Monday morning
and afternoon. Locally strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail
will be possible with the strongest storms.
...Lower/Middle TX Coast Vicinity...
A somewhat compact mid/upper low and attendant trough will shift
east/southeast from west TX to the western Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
Height falls associated with this system will result in the
development of a weak surface low over west-central TX during the
morning. South/southeasterly low-level flow ahead of the low will
allow for modest Gulf moisture return across southern TX, with upper
50s to low 60s F dewpoints forecast. As the surface low develops
eastward, a weak cold front will approach the coast by around
21Z/3pm CST. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing showers and
thunderstorms will limit stronger destabilization. However, midlevel
lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km atop the moistening boundary-layer
will support MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings also
indicate precipitable water values near the climatological max for
late January, with a near saturated profile from the surface to
around 500 mb. This, combined with the south/southwesterly
orientation of deep-layer flow, suggests heavy rain is likely to be
the main hazard (reference WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more
details). Nevertheless, modest instability combined with effective
shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt could support a couple of strong to
severe thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail through the afternoon hours on Monday.
..Leitman.. 01/30/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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