Corpus Christi, TX...Victoria, TX...Bay City, TX...Portland, TX...Beeville, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
11,805
662,597
Corpus Christi, TX...Victoria, TX...Bay City, TX...Portland, TX...Beeville, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
11,900
670,345
Corpus Christi, TX...Victoria, TX...Bay City, TX...Portland, TX...Beeville, TX...
SPC AC 301750
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CST Sun Jan 30 2022
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST....
...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the Lower and Middle Texas Coast vicinity Monday morning
and afternoon. Locally strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail
will be possible with the strongest storms.
...Synopsis...
A compact mid-level trough will move from West Texas to the Gulf
Coast on Monday. Strengthening southerly flow will bring a more
moist airmass northward into southeast Texas during the day.
Dewpoints are expected to increase into the low to potentially mid
60s across portions of southeast Texas tomorrow. This moisture is
expected to extend into the mid-levels with PWAT values approaching
1.5 inches based on RAP forecast soundings. As a result of the high
moisture content, extensive cloud cover is expected across the
region. However, despite a lack of solar insolation, weak to
moderate instability is anticipated due to the increasing low-level
moisture and cooling temperatures aloft. As destabilization occurs,
thunderstorms are anticipated by mid afternoon ahead of the
mid-level shortwave trough in a region of isentropic ascent.
Effective shear should be sufficient (25 to 35 knots) to support
some updraft rotation and potentially a severe storm or two.
However, weak low-level lapse rates should be a limiting factor to a
greater severe threat. The primary threat from any stronger storms
will be isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.
..Bentley.. 01/30/2022
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