Feb 1, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Feb 1 05:40:35 UTC 2022 (20220201 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220201 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220201 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220201 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220201 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220201 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 010540

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1140 PM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis...

   A large-scale mid/upper trough will extend from northern Manitoba to
   the Lower CO Valley/northwest Mexico early Wednesday, becoming
   oriented from Ontario to the central Plains and southern Rockies by
   Thursday morning. A broad region of moderate mid/upper southwesterly
   flow will extend from the southern Plains to the Midwest and
   Northeast. At the surface, an arctic cold front will extend from
   southeastern Lower MI to southeastern OK and central TX at the
   beginning of the period. By Thursday morning, the front will extend
   from western NY/PA to northern LA and the western Gulf of Mexico. 

   Warm advection ahead of the surface front and isentropic ascent will
   allow for widespread precipitation across the south-central states
   northward into the Midwest. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F will be
   confined to south TX eastward into LA and southern MS/southwest AL.
   However, upper forcing for ascent will remain nebulous as the upper
   trough remains well to the west of the region. This will also result
   in mainly neutral to only small height falls across south/east TX
   into the central Gulf Coast vicinity, precluding stronger surface
   cyclogenesis and limiting midlevel lapse rates. Poor diurnal heating
   due to cloud cover and areas of precipitation will limit
   destabilization for much of the period, though some guidance
   suggests weak instability will develop inland across southern
   LA/coastal MS by the last few hours of the period just ahead of the
   cold front. While isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
   coastal TX into parts of the lower MS Valley, overall severe
   potential appears low given the lack of stronger forcing and poor
   thermodynamics.

   ..Leitman.. 02/01/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z