SPC AC 011722

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1122 AM CST Tue Feb 01 2022

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
   States on Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Large-scale upper troughing will extend from the northern Plains
   across the Rockies and into the Southwest Wednesday morning. This
   upper trough is expected to progress slowly eastward across the
   Upper Midwest and much of the Plains through the period. An arctic
   cold front will continue to advance southeastward across the
   southern Plains, Mid-South, and lower MS Valley through Wednesday
   night.

   Low-level moisture return ahead of the front should remain fairly
   modest through much of the day, with generally 50s to low 60s
   surface dewpoints prevalent. Eventually, slightly greater low-level
   moisture, characterized by surface dewpoints up to 64-66F, may
   advance inland across parts of coastal TX and LA Wednesday night.
   This gradual increase in low-level moisture will occur in tandem
   with a strengthening southerly low-level jet across east TX and the
   lower MS Valley, mainly after 06Z.

   Forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough should remain
   mostly displaced to the north and west of the surface warm sector.
   Still, increasing low-level warm/moist advection and the cold front
   itself will probably encourage convective development Wednesday
   evening/night from parts of central into east TX, and eventually the
   lower MS Valley. Most of these thunderstorms should be undercut by
   the front fairly quickly, with a large component of front-parallel
   flow present aloft.

   A low chance for surface-based storms may exist along immediate
   portions of the upper TX Coast into southwestern and central LA late
   Wednesday night. Across these areas, weak instability coupled with
   strong deep-layer shear suggest that there may be a chance for a
   strong thunderstorm or two. A fair amount of uncertainty remains in
   various model guidance regarding the quality of the low-level
   moisture return across this region, which will greatly impact the
   potential for surface-based convection. At this point, it appears
   that an appreciable increase in the threat for isolated severe
   thunderstorms should wait until the start of the Day 3 period (12Z
   Thursday) across parts of the central Gulf Coast.

   ..Gleason.. 02/01/2022

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