SPC AC 020644

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 AM CST Wed Feb 02 2022

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY ON THURSDAY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging wind
   gusts, a couple of tornadoes, and hail are possible on Thursday
   across portions of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi and
   Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.

   ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity into Central MS/AL...

   A large-scale upper trough will extend from western Ontario toward
   the southern Rockies/northern Mexico Thursday morning. The northern
   branch of the trough will pivot eastward over the Upper Great Lakes
   and mid-MS Valley while the southern branch stalls, and an upper low
   tries to develop over the southern Rockies/west TX vicinity. This
   bifurcation of the upper trough will result in stronger forcing for
   ascent lifting northeast across the Midwest. Further south, neutral
   height tendencies across the Gulf Coast vicinity are expected, and
   will limit stronger surface cyclogenesis. Nevertheless, strong
   southwesterly mid/upper-level flow will overspread the region atop
   southerly low-level flow, resulting in moderate vertical shear. 

   At the beginning of the period, a strong cold front will extend from
   Middle TN into northern LA and then southwest near the Sabine River
   and just offshore from the TX Gulf coast. Ahead of the front,
   mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will spread across southeast LA into parts
   of southern/central MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. Questions
   remain regarding how far north surface-based instability will
   extend, though modest elevated instability will extend as far north
   as parts of central MS/AL. Higher-quality boundary-layer moisture
   will reside closer to the Gulf coast across parts of southeast LA
   into southern MS, and up to 1000 J/kg SBCAPE is possible. Weak
   cyclogenesis and a lack of stronger large-scale forcing will likely
   limit pre-frontal warm sector convection, with thunderstorm activity
   more closely tied to the cold front. Given boundary-parallel
   deep-layer flow, this may result in convection quickly becoming
   undercut by the front. Elevated convection is more likely with
   northward extent toward parts of central MS/AL with greater
   potential for at least a couple of surface-based storms further
   south. 

   Across southeast LA into southern MS, enlarged low-level hodographs
   supporting rotating updrafts are apparent in forecast soundings.
   Some consideration for an upgrade to a Slight risk (level 2 out of
   5) was given across this area. However, coverage of warm sector
   convection ahead the front, remains in question. Additionally, weak
   forcing and modest thermodynamics further limit confidence in a
   greater severe threat at this time. Nevertheless, at least a low-end
   threat for locally damaging wind gusts and hail exist across the
   Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) area. A tornado or two also will be
   possible across southeast LA into southern MS.

   ..Leitman.. 02/02/2022

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