Feb 3, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 3 05:45:43 UTC 2022 (20220203 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220203 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220203 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220203 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220203 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220203 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 030545

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 PM CST Wed Feb 02 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

   ...Synopsis...

   The upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-MS
   Valley and southern Plains will shift eastward on Friday, becoming
   positioned from NY/PA to the coastal Carolinas by Saturday morning.
   The southern branch of the trough will shift east more slowly,
   tracking from the southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley. Strong
   southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with this system will
   overspread much of the Southeast U.S. northward through New England.
   At the surface, a strong cold front will extend from the Chesapeake
   Bay vicinity to the western FL Panhandle and the central Gulf of
   Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front
   across parts of the Southeast into the NC/SC Piedmont/coastal plain.

   South/southwesterly low-level winds will transport 60s dewpoints
   northward into the Carolinas. While weak to moderate vertical shear
   will be in place given increasing wind speeds with height, poor
   lapse rates and limited diurnal heating will preclude stronger
   destabilization across the Southeast. Low-level flow will remain
   veered ahead of the front in the absence of stronger surface
   cyclogenesis. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will remain somewhat
   nebulous, especially across FL/GA. As a result of poor
   thermodynamics and weak forcing for ascent will limit warm sector
   convection, with any thunderstorms tied more closely to the cold
   front. Given boundary-parallel deep-layer flow, any storms that
   develop will become undercut by the cold front and severe potential
   will remain low.

   ..Leitman.. 02/03/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z