SPC AC 040406

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1006 PM CST Thu Feb 03 2022

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
   Saturday through Saturday night.

   ...Discussion...
   A blocking mid-level high over the eastern Pacific (centered
   northeast of 30N/140W) may weaken some, but ridging to its north
   appears likely to remain rather amplified through this period.  The
   ridge axis is forecast to pivot toward a more positive tilt, inland
   across the Canadian Rockies and Pacific Northwest, in response to
   the progression of a series of short wave perturbations emerging
   from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude and
   subtropical western into central Pacific.

   Within splitting branches of flow downstream of the ridging, models
   indicate at least a couple of digging short wave short wave
   impulses.  One may contribute to amplification of larger-scale
   mid-level troughing across the Rockies into Great Plains.  Farther
   southwest, within a separate stream, a mid-level low may accelerate
   eastward toward southern Baja, gradually coming in phase with a
   modest belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern
   Pacific, before extending east-northeastward through the Gulf and
   South Atlantic coasts.

   To the east of the interior U.S. mid-level troughing, flow is
   forecast to back to a general west-southwesterly component east of
   the Great Plains through the Appalachians, but it appears likely to
   remain broadly confluent as deep mid-level troughing remains
   prominent across the Canadian Arctic into Maritimes provinces.  One
   vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to rapidly accelerate east
   of the northern Mid Atlantic/New England coast on the southern
   periphery of this troughing, while supporting continuing strong
   cyclogenesis across the northwestern Atlantic. 

   It appears that the surface frontal zone trailing this cyclone will
   stall near or southeast of southern Florida and the Keys, with
   seasonably high moisture content generally focused along/above and
   to the south of the front.  With boundary-layer conditions forecast
   to become and remain stable over most inland areas, coupled with
   weak mid/upper forcing for ascent, the risk for thunderstorms
   appears negligible Saturday through Saturday night.

   ..Kerr.. 02/04/2022

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