Feb 4, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 4 17:20:54 UTC 2022 (20220204 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220204 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220204 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220204 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220204 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220204 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 041720

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 AM CST Fri Feb 04 2022

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
   Saturday through Saturday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   Several mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the CONUS over
   the weekend. However, a dry, continental polar airmass will be in
   place across the CONUS which will limit any potential for
   thunderstorms. The only region where enough moisture remains for
   possible thunderstorms will be across the southern Florida
   peninsula. In this region, dewpoints will be in the upper 60s ahead
   of the cold front. Some showers are expected to develop along the
   front, but warm mid-level temperatures are expected to limit the
   vertical depth. Therefore, no lightning is anticipated through the
   period on Saturday and Saturday night.

   ..Bentley.. 02/04/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z