SPC AC 050416

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1016 PM CST Fri Feb 04 2022

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Sunday
   through Sunday night.

   ...Discussion...
   By 12Z Sunday, much of the Gulf Basin and Atlantic waters off the
   East coast will be under the influence of cold surface ridging. 
   Conditions across much of the U.S. will be generally dry and/or
   stable, and latest model output continues to indicate little
   potential for this to change through 12Z Monday.

   Blocking mid-level ridging appears likely to persist near the U.S.
   Pacific coast, although it may become further suppressed as a
   significant short wave trough progresses within/along the height
   gradient, around the northern periphery of larger-scale ridging
   across the eastern Pacific into western North America.  A plume of
   at least modest moisture return from the southern mid-latitude
   Pacific may accompany the impulse inland to the west of the
   Washington Cascades by late Sunday night.  However, the mid-level
   cold core and stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent are forecast to
   remain focused north of the international border, across and inland
   of the British Columbia coast.

   Downstream of the large-scale ridging, models indicate some
   consolidation of mid-level troughing, mainly across the southern
   Rockies and adjacent northern Mexican Plateau into the Rio Grande
   Valley and Texas coastal plain.  This likely will include the
   remnants of a mid-level low accelerating east of the Baja California
   Sur, toward the lower Rio Grande Valley, accompanied by elevated
   moisture return of subtropical eastern Pacific origin.  Latest NAM
   forecast soundings suggest that there may be some coinciding
   steepening of mid-level lapse rates to contribute to weak
   conditional and convective instability, but forcing for ascent
   within this layer, beneath a strengthening west-southwesterly upper
   jet remains unclear.

   Forcing for ascent associated with a downstream speed maximum,
   propagating east of the southern Atlantic coast early in the period,
   may contribute to some risk for thunderstorms Sunday, within a
   moistening/destabilizing boundary layer near the Gulf Stream, east
   of the Florida Atlantic coast.  The evolution of a weak surface wave
   within coinciding developing offshore surface troughing appears
   possible, but this evolution now appears unlikely to allow for
   appreciable boundary-layer moistening and destabilization over the
   Florida Peninsula.

   ..Kerr.. 02/05/2022

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