SPC AC 060410

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1010 PM CST Sat Feb 05 2022

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
   Monday through Monday night.

   ...Discussion...
   Based on the latest deterministic and ensemble output of the various
   models, it still appears likely that a blocking mid-level high will
   become more prominent once again, to the west of the U.S. Pacific
   coast during this period.  This is forecast to occur as a fairly
   significant short wave trough continues inland, around the periphery
   of persistent larger-scale ridging within the mid-latitude
   westerlies across the eastern Pacific into western North America. 
   As the ridging rebuilds to the north of the center of the developing
   high, the downstream short wave trough appears likely to dig to the
   lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies, across the Canadian
   Prairies and adjacent international border area.

   There is at least somewhat greater spread concerning short wave
   developments within splitting downstream stream flow, from the Great
   Plains and Mexican Plateau eastward through the Atlantic Seaboard. 
   However, even as initially deep eastern Canadian mid-level troughing
   retreats to the higher latitudes, mid-level flow across the central
   into eastern U.S. will remain broadly confluent, to the northwest of
   somewhat more amplified southwestern Atlantic subtropical ridging.

   It does still appear that forcing for ascent, downstream of
   mid-level short wave troughing within this regime, may support
   continued weak to modest surface cyclogenesis along a frontal zone
   off the southern Mid Atlantic coast Monday through Monday night. 
   However, destabilization supportive of an appreciable risk for
   thunderstorms probably will remain confined to areas near and east
   of the Gulf Stream.

   Otherwise, the boundary-layer over much of the northern and western
   Gulf Basin is forecast to remain relatively cool and stable.  Ahead
   of lingering mid-level troughing across the Mexican Plateau, it
   still appears that elevated moisture return of subtropical eastern
   Pacific origin, coupled with some steepening of mid-level lapse
   rates, may be contributing to weak conditional and convective
   instability (based near or above 700 mb) across parts of the lower
   Rio Grande Valley at the outset of the period.  However, the
   potential for this to support convection capable of producing
   lightning remains unclear, but seems rather low at best.

   ..Kerr.. 02/06/2022

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