SPC AC 070455

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1055 PM CST Sun Feb 06 2022

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
   Tuesday through Tuesday night.

   ...Discussion...
   A blocking mid-level high appears likely to remain prominent
   offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast through this period, with further
   amplification of larger-scale ridging forecast within the
   mid-latitude westerlies across the eastern Pacific into western
   North America.  Downstream, models indicate that mid-level flow will
   remain broadly cyclonic in the mean, but probably still comprised of
   splitting branches that may remain generally out of phase, east of
   the Great Plains through the Atlantic Seaboard, and into the western
   Atlantic by late Tuesday night.

   Within this regime, consolidating short wave troughing, across the
   Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity into the Northeast, is still
   forecast to support strengthening cyclogenesis along a surface
   frontal zone offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast through the
   Canadian Maritimes.  In the wake of the cyclone, the front will
   accelerate away from much of the Atlantic coast.  However,
   progression south and east of southern Florida and the Keys may be a
   bit slower, in advance of another short wave perturbation
   accelerating east-northeastward out of the northwestern Gulf of
   Mexico vicinity.

   While relatively cool and stable boundary-layer conditions are
   expected to prevail across much of central and southern Florida, an
   elevated moisture return of subtropical eastern Pacific origin,
   coupled with some steepening of mid-level lapse rates, may
   contribute to layers of very weak CAPE (mostly based above 700 mb). 
   While this may support scattered convection within a more extensive
   developing post-frontal precipitation shield, probabilities that
   this activity will become capable of producing lightning still
   appear low.

   ..Kerr.. 02/07/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z