SPC AC 080419

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1019 PM CST Mon Feb 07 2022

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
   Wednesday through Wednesday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   The center of a deep mid-level low over the northern Canadian Arctic
   latitudes may redevelop south-southeastward toward Hudson Bay during
   this period.  However much of the U.S. will remain most prominently
   under the influence of westerlies emanating from the Pacific, with
   models indicating little change in the general large-scale pattern. 
   A blocking mid-level high appears likely to remain centered offshore
   of the U.S. Pacific coast, with short wave perturbations emanating
   from an upstream jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, before
   progressing around the ridging into split, broadly cyclonic
   downstream branches across the U.S., and northern Mexico through
   much of the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean.  Seasonably
   cool and dry boundary-layer conditions likely will be maintained
   over much of the Gulf Basin and southeastern U.S., in the wake of a
   lingering lead surface frontal zone extending east through south of
   the Florida Peninsula into the western Caribbean.

   ...Ohio Valley/Allegheny Plateau vicinity...
   Some of the higher resolution, convection allowing model output does
   suggest that weak boundary-layer destabilization is possible across
   parts of the middle Ohio Valley into western Allegheny Plateau
   vicinity by late Wednesday afternoon.  It appears that this would
   mostly be in response to daytime heating, preceding strong mid-level
   cooling accompanying the cold core (possibly including 500 mb temps
   to -30C) of one short wave impulse turning east of the Mississippi
   Valley.  This may be sufficient to produce scattered showers, and it
   might not be entirely out of the question that some of this
   convection might briefly become capable of producing lightning.  At
   this point, though, the risk for sustained thunderstorms with
   appreciable coverage still seems low, and probabilities for
   thunderstorms are being maintained at less than 10 percent.

   ..Kerr.. 02/08/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z