SPC AC 090357

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0957 PM CST Tue Feb 08 2022

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
   Thursday through Thursday night.

   ...Discussion...
   While blocking, centered at mid/upper levels near or just offshore
   of the northern California coast, remains prominent through this
   period, models indicate that the westerlies will undergo substantive
   amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern
   Pacific into North America.  This appears likely to include a
   building ridge near the British Columbia coast and digging
   downstream troughing, as an inland progressing shorter wavelength
   impulse digs to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern
   U.S. Great Plains by 12Z Friday.  It still appears that the
   mid-level impulse will be accompanied by the southeastward migration
   of a fairly broad and deep surface cyclone into the upper Great
   Lakes by the end of the period.  There may be some phasing with a
   deep mid-level low and troughing turning southeastward across
   northern Hudson Bay and Quebec, with seasonably cold air surging
   southward in the wake of the surface cyclone.

   While deepening surface troughing is forecast to the southwest of
   the cyclone, through much of the southern U.S. Great Plains by the
   end of the period, associated strengthening low-level flow across
   much of the warm sector likely will maintain a substantial westerly
   component.  Furthermore, beneath confluent, cyclonic mid-level
   westerlies across the Mexican Plateau through much of the Gulf of
   Mexico and Gulf Coast region, seasonably cool surface ridging will
   generally be maintained.  Although, models suggest that more
   substantive boundary-layer moistening may commence across the
   southwestern Gulf Basin (across and west/northwest of the Bay of
   Campeche), appreciable inland moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico
   appears unlikely.  This will contribute to the maintenance of stable
   conditions with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity.

   ..Kerr.. 02/09/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z