SPC AC 100415

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1015 PM CST Wed Feb 09 2022

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Aside from a small portion of Deep South Texas, the risk for
   thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday
   through Friday  night.

   ...Synopsis...
   Models indicate that more substantive weakening of the mid-level
   high is possible during this period, but blocking centered near the
   California coast appears likely to remain prominent Friday through
   Friday night.  Large-scale ridging within the westerlies is also
   forecast to persist across much of the eastern mid-latitude Pacific
   into western North America.  While a deep downstream mid-level low
   emerging from the Arctic latitudes is forecast to turn
   east-northeast of northern Hudson Bay through northern Quebec, and a
   short wave impulse of mid-latitude Pacific origins accelerates
   eastward within increasing confluent mid-level flow across the Great
   Lakes, at least a couple of additional short waves are forecast to
   continue digging to the lee of the ridging.  It appears that this
   will include one notable perturbation contributing to sharpening
   mid-level troughing across the central Great Plains through southern
   Rockies by late Friday night.  

   In lower levels, an initially deep cyclone over the upper Great
   Lakes region early Friday is forecast to weaken while migrating into
   southern Quebec.  However, a reinforcing intrusion of seasonably
   cold air will continue to advance southward in its wake.  It appears
   that this will progress through the lower Great Lakes, Ohio and mid
   to lower Mississippi Valleys, and much of the southern Great Plains,
    as cold surface ridging begins to build southeastward to the lee of
   the southern Rockies.

   Preceding this front, a lingering surface frontal zone, initially
   southeast of the Florida Peninsula and Keys into portions of the
   southeastern Gulf/northwestern Caribbean, may weaken and slowly
   redevelop northward.  This may be accompanied by at least some
   boundary-layer modification across the Florida Straits vicinity,
   while the boundary layer also begins to modify more substantively
   across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, perhaps aided by moisture
   advection from the Caribbean.

   ...Deep South Texas/lower Rio Grande Valley...
   As mid-level troughing within a weaker separate branch of westerlies
   persists across northern Mexico into the Gulf Basin, it still
   appears that one or two emerging impulses may contribute to lift and
   modest steepening of mid-level lapse rates across the lower Rio
   Grande Valley and adjacent Deep South Texas Friday through Friday
   night.  Coupled with northward moisture return from the southwestern
   Gulf of Mexico, it appears that destabilization (most likely based
   above a stable boundary layer) may become sufficient to support
   occasional scattered weak thunderstorm activity, perhaps as early as
   midday Friday.

   ..Kerr.. 02/10/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z