Feb 11, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 11 05:58:18 UTC 2022 (20220211 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220211 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220211 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220211 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220211 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220211 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 110558

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1158 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Aside from parts of southern Florida, and perhaps parts of Deep
   South Texas, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across
   much of the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper troughing is forecast to cover much of the CONUS early
   Saturday, stretching from the Intermountain West to off the East
   Coast. An embedded shortwave trough, initially extending from the
   northern Plains southwestward into the southern High Plains, is
   expected to progress eastward/southeastward throughout the day,
   ending the period extended from the Upper OH Valley into the far
   western Gulf of Mexico. Another shortwave trough is expected to
   follow in the wake of the first, moving through the northern/central
   Plains and Upper/Mid MS Valley late Saturday night and early Sunday
   morning. This overall pattern evolution will help maintain broad
   upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS while upper
   ridging initially centered off the west coast slowly builds
   eastward.

   At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from the Upper OH
   Valley southwestward through the TN Valley, Mid-South, and central
   TX early Saturday. This front is forecast to continue
   southward/southeast through the period and is expected to have moved
   through all of the central and eastern CONUS except for the southern
   FL peninsula by early Sunday.

   Modest low-level moisture will be in place across the TX Coastal
   Plain as the front moves through, with frontal lift in the vicinity
   of this moisture contributing to isolated thunderstorm potential.
   Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across southern FL, mainly
   early Sunday morning as the front approaches the region.

   ..Mosier.. 02/11/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z