SPC AC 111654

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1054 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of south
   Florida and coastal/east Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not
   expected.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A large-scale upper trough will be in place over much of the central
   and eastern CONUS on Saturday. An embedded shortwave trough will
   move southeastward across the southern Plains and lower/mid MS
   Valley through the day. At the surface, a cold front should extend
   from the Upper OH Valley southwestward through the TN Valley,
   Mid-South, and into central TX Saturday morning. This front is
   expected to move across nearly all of the central/eastern CONUS,
   except parts of the FL Peninsula, by early Sunday morning.

   Modest low-level moisture should be in place at the start of the
   period across parts of coastal/east TX. Ascent associated with both
   the front and the previously mentioned shortwave trough should aid
   isolated thunderstorm potential across this region as convection
   moves quickly east-southeastward and off the coast in tandem with
   the front. MUCAPE should remain fairly weak, generally 1000 J/kg or
   less, and severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Other isolated
   convection appears possible mainly early Sunday morning across parts
   of south FL and the Keys as the cold front approaches this region.

   ..Gleason.. 02/11/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z