Feb 12, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 12 06:34:49 UTC 2022 (20220212 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220212 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220212 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220212 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220212 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220212 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 120634

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 AM CST Sat Feb 12 2022

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida on Sunday
   but severe thunderstorms are not expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the central
   and eastern CONUS early Sunday morning. A pair of shortwave troughs
   are expected to progress throughout this upper troughing. The lead
   shortwave will likely weaken as it moves across the Southeast, while
   the second shortwave matures towards a more negative tilt as it
   moves across the Great Lakes, OH and TN Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic.
   At the same time, western CONUS ridging will dampen as a pair of
   shortwave troughs move through its northern periphery ahead of an
   approaching upper low.

   A dry, continental air mass will cover the majority of the CONUS,
   precluding the moisture and buoyancy needed for thunderstorms. The
   only exception is across south FL, where a modestly moist and
   buoyant air mass will still be in place ahead of the front. As a
   result, a few thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this
   front as it moves across south FL Sunday morning.

   ..Mosier.. 02/12/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z