Feb 13, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 13 07:00:01 UTC 2022 (20220213 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220213 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220213 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220213 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220213 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220213 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 130700

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CST Sun Feb 13 2022

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper pattern early Monday is forecast to feature predominantly
   northwesterly flow across the majority of the CONUS. An embedded
   shortwave trough, accompanied by a belt of strong mid-level flow, is
   expected to move from its early day position over the Upper Great
   Lakes east-southeastward off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. 

   Farther west, a strong shortwave trough is expected to drop south
   through the Pacific Northwest into central CA and the western Great
   Basin. The strong flow aloft associated with this shortwave will be
   confined to its western periphery, stretching from western/central
   OR through central CA by early Tuesday morning. Strong forcing for
   ascent will accompany this shortwave, and a few deeper updrafts are
   possible amid the buoyancy resulting from cold mid-level
   temperatures. Overall thunderstorm coverage in this area is expected
   to be less than 10 percent.  

   Recent intrusion of dry, continental air will result in stable
   conditions across the CONUS on Monday. Southerly flow will
   strengthen across the western Gulf of Mexico late Monday evening
   through Tuesday morning, but the more substantial low-level moisture
   will remain offshore. Consequently, despite a fairly active pattern
   with several shortwave troughs, thunderstorms are not anticipated
   across the majority of the CONUS.

   ..Mosier.. 02/13/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z