Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 131631
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Sun Feb 13 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis...
West/northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will be in place across much
of the CONUS Monday morning, with a broad upper trough east of the
Mississippi River and a compact upper shortwave trough developing
south/southeast across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin. Another
more subtle upper shortwave trough will progress eastward from the
southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Despite an active
mid/upper-level pattern, surface high pressure across the eastern
half of the country, and a dearth of moisture across the Gulf of
Mexico will limit thunderstorm potential.
A surface cold front will move across the Pacific Northwest into the
western Great Basin as the upper trough digs southeast. Showers are
expected from coastal WA/OR into parts of ID/NV. Steepening midlevel
lapse rates will result in meager elevated instability. A lightning
flash or two is possible in the vicinity of the
southeastward-advancing cold front, but MLCAPE generally less than
100 J/kg and marginal temperatures aloft will largely limit
thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 02/13/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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