Feb 14, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 14 06:21:44 UTC 2022 (20220214 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220214 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220214 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220214 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220214 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220214 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 140621

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1221 AM CST Mon Feb 14 2022

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the northern
   Rockies into the western Great Basin early Tuesday morning. This
   shortwave is then expected to drop southward throughout the day,
   ending the period extended from the Four Corners through the
   northern Baja Peninsula. Evolution of this shortwave will contribute
   to significant amplification of the upper pattern as well as
   increased southwesterly mid-level flow across the central/southern
   Plains and Mid MS Valley. Cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -30 deg
   C at 500 mb) will also accompany this shortwave, supporting the
   potential for a few lightning flashes within any cells that develop
   near this colder air aloft as it moves across the Great Basin.
   Coverage is currently expected to remain less than 10 percent. 

   Farther east, the approach of this shortwave, paired with another
   shortwave trough progressing within the northern stream across the
   Canadian Prairie Provinces, will help foster a strong, dynamically
   driven low-level jet across the Plains. By Tuesday evening, 50+ kt
   850 mb winds will likely extend from northeast TX through the Upper
   MS Valley. Strong southerly surface winds will be presence
   throughout the day as well, contributing to moisture advection
   across the southern Plains. Previous frontal intrusion will limit
   the northward extent of the better moisture, but mid 50s dewpoints
   are expected into north TX and low 60s dewpoints are possible along
   the TX Coast by Wednesday morning. Even so, the stronger forcing
   for ascent will remain west of the southern Plains and capping
   promoted by warm mid-level temperatures will preclude thunderstorm
   development.

   ..Mosier.. 02/14/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z