SPC AC 141659

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1059 AM CST Mon Feb 14 2022

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...

   An upper trough over the northwestern CONUS will intensify,
   developing a closed upper low, as it shifts southeast across the
   Great Basin and Southwest desert vicinity. The amplification of the
   western upper trough, in conjunction with a shortwave mid/upper
   trough traversing the northern Plains vicinity, will result in
   previously zonal deep-layer flow east of the Rockies becoming
   southwesterly. Surface high pressure over the eastern U.S. will move
   offshore over the western Atlantic, with an increasing pressure
   gradient developing from the southern Plains through the mid-MS
   Valley and Great Lakes vicinity as lee surface troughing develops in
   response to the deepening western upper trough. 

   Increasing southerly low-level/southwesterly mid-level flow will aid
   in northward transport of Gulf moisture across parts of the
   southern/central Plains. However, previous frontal intrusions into
   the Gulf and a dry continental airmass will limit deeper
   boundary-layer moist return to far south TX and the Lower TX Coast
   late in the period. Nevertheless, 50s F dewpoints will spread as far
   north as north TX/southern OK by Wednesday morning in this strong
   warm advection regime. Despite increasing vertical shear and
   boundary-layer moisture, a stout capping inversion between 850-700
   mb and large-scale forcing for ascent remaining over the western
   U.S. will preclude thunderstorm development over the south-central
   states.

   ..Leitman.. 02/14/2022

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