SPC AC 150657

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING
   INTO THURSDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL TX AND WESTERN OK INTO PORTIONS
   OF AR AND NORTHWEST LA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening into Thursday
   morning from central Texas and western Oklahoma into portions of
   Arkansas and northwest Louisiana.

   ...Synopsis...
   A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress
   eastward/northeastward through the Southwest and southern High
   Plains into the southern Plains during the period. A belt of
   moderate to strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave,
   stretching from northern Mexico northeastward through the Mid MS
   Valley early Wednesday before gradually shifting eastward ahead of
   the progressing shortwave. 

   Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over the southern High Plains
   Wednesday afternoon, at the southwestern edge of a cold front
   extending from the Mid MS Valley southwestward into northeastern NM.
   Expectation is for this low to move eastward along the front as it
   surges southward/southeastward. This should bring the low into
   northwest TX late Wednesday evening, eastward along the Red
   River/southern OK late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, and
   northeastward to the central OK/AR border by 12Z Thursday.

   ...Southern Plains... 
   Strong moisture advection is anticipated throughout the day ahead of
   the approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface low.
   Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to cover much of east TX by
   Wednesday evening, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching farther north
   across most of central and eastern OK. Even so, buoyancy will remain
   modest, tempered by warm mid-level temperatures. 

   Initial thunderstorm development appears most likely near the TX
   Panhandle/western OK border vicinity southward through northwest TX
   Wednesday evening as the negatively tilted shortwave trough reaches
   the region. The cold front is expected to stretch from southern MO
   southwestward through southwestern OK into the TX South Plains at
   that time, and much of this initial development is currently
   expected to mature behind the front as it surges southeastward.
   Combination of steep mid-level lapse rates, robust large-scale
   forcing for ascent, and strong deep-layer shear will support a risk
   for severe hail throughout the night with these elevated storms
   behind the front. 

   A greater potential for surface-based storm development will likely
   exist near the triple point and southward along the
   eastward-progressing dryline, particularly in areas where dewpoints
   exceed 60 deg F (along the Red River eastward into the Arklatex).
   The strong low-level flow will help support damaging wind gusts and
   perhaps even a few line embedded tornadoes. Main uncertainty in this
   area is whether there is enough buoyancy to maintain robust updrafts
   on the surging cold pool.

   ..Mosier.. 02/15/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z