Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
57,736
9,161,787
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
5 %
95,780
5,431,823
Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Abilene, TX...Tyler, TX...Fort Smith, AR...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
67,074
9,451,310
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
5 %
86,411
5,097,837
Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Abilene, TX...Tyler, TX...Fort Smith, AR...
SPC AC 151729
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
evening through Thursday morning from western North Texas and
western Oklahoma to portions western Arkansas and southwestern
Missouri.
...Synopsis...
An upper low currently digging southeastward across California is
progged to reach the lower Colorado River Valley by Wednesday
morning. From there, the system is progged to turn/accelerate
eastward across Arizona/New Mexico/the southern Rockies, and reach
the southern High Plains during the evening.
As this system advances, a surface cold front -- trailing from a
southern Rockies low -- will likewise cross the Desert Southwest,
and shift into the southern High Plains during the evening. By the
end of the period, the low should reside in the northeastern
Oklahoma vicinity, with the cold front trailing southwestward into
central Texas, and a warm front extending northeastward into the
Midwest. Widespread convective development is expected to evolve
across the southern Plains vicinity during the evening, and spread
eastward toward the Mid Mississippi Valley overnight.
...Parts of the southern Plains into portions of southwestern
Missouri and western Arkansas...
Return of partially modified Gulf of Mexico moisture is expected
into the southern Plains ahead of the advancing, energetic storm
system, beneath a strongly capped lower troposphere.
By evening, with the system advancing into the southern Plains,
elevated/weak convection should be evolving from eastern
Oklahoma/eastern Kansas northeastward in the vicinity of the warm
front, followed later in the evening by shower/storm development
across western Oklahoma/western North Texas near the advancing cold
front. Warm sector destabilization should remain meager, with a
likely-to-remain-slightly-stable boundary layer. At this time, it
appears that 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE or less will evolve across
parts of north Texas and into Oklahoma by late evening and into the
overnight hours.
As this occurs, some convective intensification is expected -- with
potential for upscale growth into a low-topped, semi-organized line.
Given very strong flow through the lower and middle troposphere,
shear will likely support locally stronger updrafts, and attendant
risk for damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible, with
stronger convective elements. In addition, with low-level veering
of the winds with height, potential for a brief QLCS-type tornado or
two cannot be ruled out, within a zone centered on the Red River
during the overnight hours.
..Goss.. 02/15/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
| 
)
