SPC AC 160659

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST ON
   THURSDAY....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Lower
   Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, and Southeast on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Moderate to strong mid-level flow is forecast to extend from
   northern Mexico eastward/northeastward into the Northeast early
   Thursday. A shortwave trough embedded within this flow is expected
   to move quickly from central KS/OK northeastward through the Mid MS
   Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Surface low associated with this
   shortwave is expected to be over eastern OK early Thursday before
   then moving northeastward just ahead of the shortwave.

   ...Eastern OK northeastward into the OH Valley...
   Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of this low as
   well as along and just ahead of a dryline extending southward from
   the low. Low to mid 60s dewpoints are anticipated just ahead of the
   low as far north far western KY before the front progression of the
   low outpaces the moisture return preceding it. This lack of better
   low-level moisture will temper buoyancy. Even so, strong large-scale
   forcing for ascent as well as more mesoscale forcing near low will
   help foster thunderstorms. Storm mode is somewhat in question, with
   a mostly mutli-cellular storm mode, with occasional bowing line
   segments, currently expected to be primary. Some attempts toward a
   more coherent convective line are possible, but the limited buoyancy
   should preclude more robust organization. Given the strong low-level
   flow, damaging wind gusts will be primary severe threat. A
   line-embedded tornado could also occur. 

   ...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley into western TN/AL...
   Low to mid 60s dewpoints are expected to be in place across the
   region ahead of the approaching front. Large-scale forcing for
   ascent will become displaced farther north with time, with most of
   the thunderstorm activity driven by somewhat modest forcing near the
   front and low-level confluence. Even so, the progressive nature of
   the front amid modest buoyancy should be sufficient for
   thunderstorms throughout the entire region. Most guidance limits the
   extent of heating that will take place ahead of the front, tempering
   the overall buoyancy and introducing uncertainty to updraft
   longevity and organization. These marginal thermodynamics are
   contrasted by strong kinematics characterized by robust low-level
   veering and long hodographs. Given these kinematics, any storms that
   can deepen and mature should become supercellular and capable of
   producing damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Pockets of stronger
   heating could result in mesoscale corridors of greater tornado
   potential. 

   ...Mid-Atlantic...
   Persistent moisture advection will result in low 60s dewpoints ahead
   of the front early Friday morning. Buoyancy will be modest but
   strong low to mid-level flow will be in place over the region,
   contributing to the risk of a few stronger storms capable of
   damaging wind gusts.

   ..Mosier.. 02/16/2022

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