Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 190653
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday into Sunday night
across parts of east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast
states.
...DISCUSSION...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Sunday across much
of the continental United States. At the surface, a large area of
high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast states will
move eastward into the western Atlantic. As a result, onshore
surface flow will develop across the western Gulf Coast states. A
moist airmass, with surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to mid 60s F,
will advect northward onto the Texas Coastal Plain and into lower
Mississippi Valley contributing to weak destabilization during the
day. Isolated thunderstorms could develop Sunday afternoon near the
axis of a low-level jet located over the Texas Coastal Plain. As the
low-level jet strengthens during the evening and overnight,
thunderstorm coverage should increase with the greatest convective
potential shifting east-northeastward into the lower Mississippi
Valley. A severe threat is not forecast mainly due to the weak
low-level instability in place. Elsewhere across the continental
United States, thunderstorm development is not expected Sunday and
Sunday night.
..Broyles.. 02/19/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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