SPC AC 191728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers and possibly a few elevated thunderstorms may evolve late
   Sunday night/Monday morning from portions of the Atklatex vicinity
   eastward to western Mississippi.

   ...Discussion...
   Low-amplitude/broadly cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across the
   U.S. Sunday, though gradual amplification of the flow field will
   occur over the western U.S. with time.  This will occur as
   short-wave troughing digs south-southeastward out of western Canada
   and across the Pacific Northwest, and then expanding into interior
   portions of the West through the end of the period.

   As this gradual expansion of troughing occurs, a weakening low
   initially progged to lie west of Baja California is forecast to
   shift eastward into northwestern Mexico.  Downstream, increasing
   southwesterly low-level flow is expected across the south-central
   states.

   As this southwesterly flow strengthens, low-level theta-e advection
   will occur, atop a stable boundary layer that will linger in the
   wake of the earlier frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico.  This
   warm/moist advection could prove sufficient to allow a couple of
   elevated thunderstorms to evolve very late in the period, rooted
   around 850mb, across a small area from the Arklatex region to
   western Mississippi.  Weak CAPE should preclude any severe
   potential.

   ..Goss.. 02/19/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z