SPC AC 200701

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0101 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat, and potential
   for large hail and wind damage, will be possible from Monday
   afternoon into Monday night across parts of the southern Plains,
   Arklatex and lower to mid Mississippi Valley.

   ...Southern Plains/Arklatex/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
   An upper-level trough will dig east-southeastward into the Desert
   Southwest on Monday as southwest mid-level flow remains established
   across much of the central and eastern United States. At the
   surface, a cold front will move quickly southward across the central
   Plains as strong warm advection continues from the southern Plains
   into the lower Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints will likely
   rise into the 60s by late afternoon across must of east Texas, far
   southwest Arkansas and in much of Louisiana. A 40 to 50 kt low-level
   jet is forecast to strengthen during the day from the Arklatex into
   the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be
   possible along and to the east of the low-level jet from northern
   Louisiana and Arkansas eastward into Mississippi and western
   Tennessee. A severe threat appears likely with the stronger
   thunderstorms within this area of convection. This activity should
   move east-northeastward through the Tennessee Valley during the
   evening, as more convection develops ahead of the approaching cold
   front from north Texas into eastern Oklahoma. This secondary area of
   convection will also likely have a severe threat as well. Convective
   coverage will continue to increase into the overnight period as a
   MCS organizes and moves eastward across the Arklatex and lower to
   mid Mississippi Valley.

   The greatest chance for severe storms is expected to develop during
   the late afternoon into the mid evening from northeast Texas across
   Arkansas and into western Tennessee. NAM forecast soundings along
   this corridor from 00Z to 03Z Monday evening generally show MLCAPE
   reaching in the 750 to 1000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to
   reach the 65 to 75 knot range supporting an organized severe threat.
   There is a substantial amount of speed and directional shear in the
   boundary layer in these forecast soundings, creating looped
   hodographs. The strong low-level shear should be favorable for
   supercells and some tornadoes. Supercells should also be capable of
   producing wind damage and isolated large hail. The tornado threat is
   expected to increase during the early to mid evening as the
   low-level jet strengthens. As convection increases in coverage ahead
   of the cold front during the late evening and overnight period, the
   predominant severe threats should transition to wind damage and
   hail. An isolated severe threat may linger into late night period as
   well.

   ..Broyles.. 02/20/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z