SPC AC 210659

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CENTRAL GULF COAST
   STATES...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms associated with an isolated tornado threat,
   wind damage and large hail will be possible Tuesday afternoon and
   evening from parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and
   Central Gulf Coast into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

   ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/Ohio
   and Tennessee Valleys...
   Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place on Tuesday from
   the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A broad low-level jet will
   move northeastward across the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. At
   the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward through the
   Arklatex and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, the airmass
   will be moist with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Thunderstorms
   will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the Ozarks
   along the western edge of a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet. This
   activity is forecast to move east-northeastward across the Ohio
   Valley during the afternoon. Further to the southwest, surface
   heating will result in an axis of instability by afternoon from
   western Mississippi northward into western Tennessee and far western
   Kentucky. Surface-based thunderstorm development appears likely to
   take place near the axis of instability from late afternoon into the
   mid evening.

   NAM forecast soundings near the axis of instability by 00Z Tuesday
   evening show MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is
   forecast to be in the 60 to 75 knot range. Low-level shear is also
   forecast to be strong with 0-3 km storm relative helicity in the 250
   to 350 m2/s2 range. This thermodynamic and wind profile should be
   favorable for supercells with wind-damage and isolated large hail. A
   tornado threat is also expected to develop as the low-level jet
   strengthens during the late afternoon and early evening. The
   potential for tornadoes is expected to increase from southeast
   Missouri into the lower Ohio Valley during the day on Tuesday, and
   then expand southward across the Tennessee Valley and into the
   central Gulf Coast States by late afternoon and early evening. Some
   models suggest there will be potential for linear MCS development
   during the evening across the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf
   Coast states. If a line of strong thunderstorms does develop ahead
   of the front, then the wind-damage threat could increase markedly
   during the evening. At this time, model spread in the convective 
   still substantial which presents uncertainty concerning the
   north-to-south spatial distribution of the severe threat for
   Tuesday.

   ..Broyles.. 02/21/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z