Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 221707
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow or tomorrow night.
...Discussion...
A broad upper trough over the West will accelerate eastward as an
intense mid-level jet translates through the base of the trough near
the Lower CO Valley and ejects onto the southern High Plains by 12Z
Thu. Strong forcing for ascent and steep lower-level lapse rates may
become coupled with scant buoyancy to yield very isolated
thunderstorms across parts of the Southwest through tomorrow
afternoon amid primarily low-topped convection.
Farther east, multiple rounds of lower-level warm advection-driven
convection are expected amid meager elevated buoyancy. The first
should be ongoing at 12Z tomorrow across parts of north TX and
southern OK, spreading east-northeast towards the Mid-South, mainly
with mixed winter precipitation. This warm conveyor regime may
subside during the day before nocturnally strengthening again
tomorrow night.
In the lee of the southern Appalachians, any lingering convection at
12Z should be in the process of weakening as large-scale ascent
subsides across the region. Some guidance suggests isolated
convection may occur near the decaying surface front through the
day, with overall thunderstorm probabilities appearing marginal.
..Grams.. 02/22/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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