SPC AC 261729

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CST Sat Feb 26 2022

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
   Sunday through Sunday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   Higher latitude blocking appears likely to persist through this
   period, with a prominent mid-level high slowly shifting eastward
   near/north of the Beaufort Sea.  To its southeast, broad and deep
   mid-level troughing will prevail across much of eastern Canada into
   the northern Atlantic, with several strong embedded short wave
   perturbations.  This is forecast to include one digging southeast of
   Hudson/James Bays, through the Canadian Maritimes and Northeast by
   late Sunday night, accompanied by a significant reinforcing cold
   intrusion.

   Across much of the remainder of North America, positive mid-level
   height anomalies will generally prevail, with broad mid-level
   ridging within the primary branch of westerlies across the Pacific
   coast through much of the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and
   Southeast.  Models indicate that this regime will include a number
   of generally weak smaller-scale perturbations, with perhaps the
   strongest forecast to dig southeast of the southern Great Plains
   through the Gulf Coast vicinity, contributing to the suppression of
   mid-level subtropical ridging initially present across much of the
   Gulf basin, Florida, northern Caribbean, and Bahamas.  By 12Z
   Monday, it appears that a plume of moisture associated with return
   flow around the subtropical ridge, mostly focused above/to the cool
   side of an initially stalled surface frontal zone, will probably
   shift southward into northern Florida, and offshore of the Gulf and
   south Atlantic coasts.

   ...Upstate New York and New England...
   Models indicate that the vigorous short wave digging into and across
   the region will be accompanied by a strong west-northwesterly jet
   streak and very cold mid-level temperatures (including wind speeds
   to 60-70+ kt and a -25 to -30C cold core around 700 mb).  It appears
   that insolation, beneath an evolving lower/mid tropospheric dry slot
   preceding the stronger mid-level cooling, will allow for steepening
   low-level lapse rates and the development of weak CAPE rooted in a
   mostly sub-freezing boundary-layer.  While the potential for
   lightning still appears low, this may be sufficient to support
   low-topped convection capable of producing brief heavy snow squalls,
   accompanied by locally strong surface gusts, across parts of the St.
   Lawrence Valley into northern New England and New York State.

   ...Southeast...
   Various model forecast soundings do indicate that layers of weak
   conditional and convective instability might develop across parts of
   Alabama and Georgia into the Carolinas.  This is generally focused
   within the elevated moisture return above the southeastward
   advancing frontal zone, where large-scale ascent supported by warm
   advection may support convection within a broader, elongated shield
   of precipitation.  While it does not appear out of the question that
   some of this activity could briefly become capable of producing
   lightning, probabilities for this still appears less than the
   minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunderstorm area.

   ..Kerr.. 02/26/2022

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