SPC AC 271725

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022

   Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Aside from parts of northeastern Florida and adjacent southeastern
   Georgia, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much
   of the U.S. Monday through Monday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   As higher latitude blocking, centered near the northwestern Canadian
   Arctic islands, becomes a bit more prominent during this period,
   models indicate that another deep mid-level low will shift slowly
   southward across Hudson Bay, with smaller-scale impulses digging to
   its south and west.  At the same time, an even stronger preceding
   perturbation is forecast to turn east of the Canadian Maritimes,
   accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, with an associated cold front
   surging eastward across the western Atlantic.  The progression of a
   trailing frontal segment, initially extending southwestward across
   northern Florida into the central Gulf of Mexico, likely will be
   considerably slower.

   While the front may gradually begin to weaken across the Florida
   peninsula and southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Monday night, much
   of the northern into central Gulf of Mexico may still undergo
   considerable lower/mid-tropospheric drying.  This is forecast to
   occur in the wake a modest short wave impulse, digging southeast of
   the Gulf coast vicinity early Monday, before turning eastward within
   larger-scale mean troughing across Florida into the western
   Atlantic.

   Upstream, the primary branch of westerlies emanating from the
   mid-latitude Pacific appears likely to remain modestly amplified
   across the eastern Pacific into western North America, with some
   further amplification of embedded larger-scale ridging across the
   Pacific coast through the Canadian and U.S. Rockies vicinity.  An
   influx of moisture, within a plume emanating from the southern
   mid-latitude Pacific, is possible across the Pacific Northwest into
   the northern U.S. Great Plains, around the northern periphery of the
   ridging.  However, it appears that relatively stable lower/mid
   tropospheric lapse rates will be maintained, with negligible risk
   for thunderstorms.

   ...The northeastern Florida vicinity...
   Forcing for ascent and cooling (including a 500 mb cold core around
   -18C), in the left exit region of a strong mid/upper jet, is
   forecast to shift east of the lower Mississippi Valley through much
   of southern Georgia and northern Florida by late Monday afternoon. 
   As this occurs, the NAM and Rapid Refresh, in particular, suggest
   that associated steepening of mid-level lapse rates may contribute
   to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for isolated to
   widely scattered thunderstorm development.  It appears that this
   will mostly be focused above/to the cool side of the frontal zone,
   mainly around the 18-21Z time frame, and it could impact the
   Jacksonville area before spreading offshore.

   ..Kerr.. 02/27/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z