Mar 1, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 1 17:10:30 UTC 2022 (20220301 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220301 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220301 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220301 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220301 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220301 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 011710

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 AM CST Tue Mar 01 2022

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States on
   Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large upper-level ridge will remain mostly stationary across the
   Western CONUS on Wednesday. An upper-level trough will approach the
   Pacific Northwest with another upper-level trough moving southeast
   through the Great Lakes. 

   Shallow convection is expected across western Washington as
   temperatures warm into the 50s. However, forecast soundings show
   equilibrium levels only around -15C which would indicate a lack o
   storm depth capable of lightning generation. An occasional flash
   cannot be ruled out from any deeper storms, but it is not expected
   to be anything more than isolated. 

   Some showers are expected to develop along the sea breeze in far
   southern Florida which may drift inland. However, warm mid-level
   temperatures should limit lightning production from this activity.

   ..Bentley.. 03/01/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z