Mar 2, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 2 17:36:17 UTC 2022 (20220302 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220302 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220302 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220302 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220302 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220302 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 021736

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1136 AM CST Wed Mar 02 2022

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few lightning flashes may occur over inland southern California
   overnight Thursday/Friday morning.

   ...Discussion...
   Continued progression of the upper flow field over the U.S. is
   expected Thursday, as an eastern North America trough advances
   gradually, upstream of a complex/evolving western system.  The main
   feature of interest initially, with this western trough, will be an
   upper cyclone shifting toward -- and eventually into -- southern
   California.  As this low moves inland early Friday morning,
   accompanying low-topped showers, and possibly a few lightning
   flashes, will spread inland.

   Elsewhere, the trailing portion of a western Atlantic cold front
   will continue drifting southward across the southeastern quarter of
   the country.  Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible near,
   and more likely just off, the Florida Peninsula coast.

   ..Goss.. 03/02/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z