Mar 3, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 3 06:32:36 UTC 2022 (20220303 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220303 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220303 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220303 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220303 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220303 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 030632

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 AM CST Thu Mar 03 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are possible Friday into Friday night over parts
   of Utah and Colorado, with a few lingering showers over southern
   California Friday morning. Severe storms are not expected.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A strong shortwave trough with cyclonically curved jet max will move
   from southern CA across the lower CO Valley during the day, with the
   jet nosing east across the Four Corners region at 00Z and into the
   central High Plains by Saturday morning. Prominent cooling aloft
   will occur with this system, which will lead to steep midlevel lapse
   rates. Daytime heating will result in can uncapped air mass from
   southern NV across northern AZ and across UT and western CO, with a
   few hundred J/kg MUCAPE expected. Scattered thunderstorms are
   likely, though the weak instability should preclude much severe
   risk. That said, cells may produce small hail or gusty winds.
   Elsewhere, early day convection is expected near the Coastal Range
   in southern CA where westerly low-level flow may enhance upslope.
   This activity should wane during the afternoon.

   Farther east across NE overnight, it appears the air mass may remain
   capped despite positive theta-e advection around 850 mb. Most models
   suggest little to no thunderstorms there, but an isolated cell
   cannot totally be ruled out. At this time, thunder chances over NE
   and IA appear minimal.

   ..Jewell.. 03/03/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z