Mar 3, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 3 17:30:25 UTC 2022 (20220303 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220303 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220303 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220303 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220303 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220303 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 031730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CST Thu Mar 03 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are possible Friday into Friday night over parts
   of Utah and Colorado, with a few lingering showers over southern
   California Friday morning. Severe storms are not expected.

   ...Discussion...
   As cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. -- surrounding an eastern
   Canada cyclone -- continues to shift eastward, ridging will spread
   eastward in its wake.  The amplification of ridging/anticyclonic
   flow across the central and eastern U.S. Saturday will occur
   downstream of a complex trough evolving with time over the western
   states.  By the end of the period, a highly amplified flow field
   will have evolved, with cyclonic flow encompassing the western half
   of the country, and downstream ridging across the East.

   At the surface, broad/ill-defined low pressure will reside over the
   Intermountain West, gradually consolidating with time in the
   vicinity of the central High Plains as a short-wave feature aloft
   crosses the Desert Southwest/southern Rockies.  A cold front
   accompanying the evolving low should reach western portions of
   Kansas/Texas/Oklahoma Sunday morning, with a warm front shifting
   northward across eastern portions of the Plains, and the Mississippi
   and Ohio Valleys through the period.

   Despite an increase in theta-e advection with time across the
   central U.S. ahead of the aforementioned system, appreciable
   destabilization is not anticipated, largely precluding thunder
   potential.  At this time, it appears that 10% thunder coverage will
   remain confined to areas over the West, where cold air aloft/steep
   lapse rates support sufficient instability for low-topped
   convection.

   ..Goss.. 03/03/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z