Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Olathe, KS...Independence, MO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Kansas City, MO...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...Overland Park, KS...Rockford, IL...
SPC AC 040650
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Fri Mar 04 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER IOWA AND
SMALL PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Saturday afternoon and through early
evening over Iowa and small portions of surrounding states. Damaging
winds, a few tornadoes and hail will all be possible.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt as it moves
across the central plains and into the middle and upper MS Valley
late in the day, providing large-scale ascent. At the surface, low
pressure is forecast to move from northern KS into northern IA by
00Z, then toward Upper MI overnight.
Elevated storms are expected around midday across parts of northeast
NE north of the low, and deep-layer effective shear as well as cold
temperatures aloft may favor hail. By late afternoon, a dryline is
forecast to extend south from the low, near the NE/IA border and
southwestward across eastern KS and OK, with a cold front to the
west over NE and KS. Models have consistently shown relatively low
dewpoints across the warm sector, with 50-55 F near the low and
southward into KS and MO. Even so, lapse rates will become steep due
to rapid cooling aloft overspreading the dryline and moist sector,
and a narrow corridor of around 500 J/kg MLCAPE is likely to develop
during the day. Scattered surface-based storms are likely to develop
over eastern NE by early afternoon, with tail end of a broken line
of cells into northeast KS, and maturing across IA.
The environment ahead of the narrow instability plume will be
relatively capped, and it is expected that the primary severe risk
will be with the main arcing line of cells. Damaging wind, a few
tornadoes and hail will all be possible, with wind profiles strongly
favoring supercells. The main mitigating factor for this event is
the amount of instability and low-level moisture quality. The severe
risk may persist at least in an isolated sense to the MS River
during the evening, but lessening instability will become a factor.
..Jewell.. 03/04/2022
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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