SPC AC 050652

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1252 AM CST Sat Mar 05 2022

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
   TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ACROSS ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN
   MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible late Sunday through
   Monday morning from northeast Texas and eastern Oklahoma across
   Arkansas, southern Missouri and toward the lower Ohio River Valley.
   A few tornadoes along with damaging winds may occur.

   ...Red River to the lower OH River...
   A strong shortwave trough will emerge into the central and southern
   Plains late Sunday with intense jet max reaching the lower MO and
   middle MS Valleys by 12Z Monday. At the surface, a front will stall
   roughly from the Red River northeastward along the OH River, but
   parts of this boundary may return north as a warm front across
   northern AR and southern MO during the evening.

   The air mass south of this boundary will contain 60s F dewpoints,
   and storms may first occur from eastern OK into AR during the
   afternoon aided by moisture advection and heating. While a warm
   layer will likely inhibit convection initially, persistent lift and
   shear that is quite favorable for supercells may eventually turn
   some of these storms severe. A tornado or two may occur with this
   activity.  

   During the evening, a weak low is forecast to form near the OK/AR
   border, and this may be a focus for a more organized severe wind and
   tornado threat across northern AR, southern MO, and perhaps toward
   the lower OH River by Monday morning. Flow at 850 mb will increase
   to over 60 kt, aiding low-level shear. Storm mode may become complex
   as precipitation expands further when a cold front pushes in from
   the west.

   ...Parts of northern NY...
   A fast moving shortwave trough will move across the region during
   the day, providing extreme wind speeds aloft. Westerly 850 mb flow
   may reach 70 kt, and forecast soundings indicate surface
   temperatures may become warm enough to support non-zero SBCAPE and
   thus low-topped convection. CAMS suggest the best chance for storms
   will be after 18Z east of Lake Ontario and approaching the Hudson
   Valley. By virtue of the intense flow just off the surface, a few
   damaging gusts may occur in association with the afternoon
   convection.

   ..Jewell.. 03/05/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z