Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 060659
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Sun Mar 06 2022
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of scattered damaging wind gusts will be
possible from parts of the Southeast into the Ohio Valley and
Appalachians on Monday.
...Southeast into the OH Valley/Northeast...
A strong midlevel shortwave trough and associated surface cyclone
are expected to move quickly eastward from the OH Valley into
portions of New England through the day on Monday, as an attendant
cold front sweeps through much of the Southeast and OH/TN Valleys.
Most guidance suggests that an extensive band of convection will be
ongoing Monday morning from portions of the OH Valley southwestward
into the lower MS Valley, in conjunction with the cold front.
Despite generally weak instability, strong low/midlevel flow (50-75
kt at 700 mb overspreading the warm sector) will support a threat of
isolated-to-scattered damaging wind gusts with this frontal band as
it moves eastward through the morning.
The southern portion of the line may tend to weaken through the day,
as the primary large-scale ascent lifts quickly northeastward, while
the northern portion of the line will encounter increasingly
negligible buoyancy with time during the afternoon and early
evening. As a result, uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude
and coverage of the damaging wind threat, though the strong flow and
potential for steepening of low-level lapse rates ahead of the line
will support a conditional damaging wind risk with any persistent
frontal convection. In addition, low-level shear will be sufficient
to support the potential for a brief line-embedded tornado.
The highest wind probabilities have been focused from northern MS/AL
into the TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians, where somewhat more
vigorous convection appears most likely to persist from late morning
into the afternoon. Weak, low-topped convection with gusty winds
cannot be ruled out across parts of the Northeast as well, though
confidence in that scenario remains too low for severe wind
probabilities at this time.
..Dean.. 03/06/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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