SPC AC 071727

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1127 AM CST Mon Mar 07 2022

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A PORTION OF THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms may develop Tuesday night
   over parts of the central Gulf Coast.

   ...Central Gulf Coast...
   A low-amplitude mid-level trough will quickly move from the southern
   Rockies east into the KY/TN vicinity by daybreak Wednesday.  In the
   low levels, a frontal zone will initially extend from the Carolina
   shelf waters west-southwestward into the western Gulf of Mexico.  As
   the mid-level disturbance traverses east during the day, a weak area
   of low pressure will develop northeast from the western Gulf into
   central AL by early Wednesday morning.  Concurrently, the front over
   the northern part of the Gulf will advance northward into far
   southern MS/AL late Tuesday night.  

   Recent model guidance trends show a warm sector penetrating the
   coast with mid-upper 60s deg F dewpoints.  Although lapse rates will
   remain modest, the northward flux of moisture into the central Gulf
   Coast will lead to scattered showers/thunderstorms developing
   Tuesday and expanding in coverage Tuesday night.  Model forecast
   soundings show 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE with shear profiles supporting
   organized structures.  As a result, have introduced low wind/tornado
   probabilities to account for increased confidence for a couple of
   stronger storms developing within the northern periphery of a
   destabilizing warm sector near the coast.

   ..Smith.. 03/07/2022

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