Apr 13, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 13 17:14:32 UTC 2022 (20220413 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220413 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220413 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 21,265 27,688,245 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...
MARGINAL 202,456 40,404,031 Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220413 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220413 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 21,275 27,670,542 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...
5 % 202,702 40,438,094 Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220413 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 97,911 15,134,768 Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
   SPC AC 131714

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1214 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An isolated threat for strong/damaging thunderstorm winds may exist
   across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England on Thursday, and on
   southward to the Southeast. Marginally severe hail also appears
   possible in some areas.

   ...Synopsis...
   As a strong upper low over the north-central U.S. Thursday morning
   shifts gradually northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and into
   western Ontario, the upper flow field across the western and central
   U.S. will become increasingly zonal/westerly.  In the East, weak
   mid-level height falls will occur, as short-wave ridging is slowly
   shunted eastward across the western Atlantic by the northeastward
   advance of the aforementioned low.

   At the surface, a cold front -- trailing southward from the triple
   point of a deeply occluded surface low near Lake Superior at the
   start of the period -- will advance east of the Appalachian Crest
   during the morning, and across the East Coast states during the
   afternoon.  By late evening the front will likely have cleared the
   southern New England/Middle Atlantic coasts, lingering only across
   the Southeast through the end of the period.

   ...Southern New England to the Southeast...
   Thunderstorms -- and possibly a lingering severe risk -- will likely
   be ongoing near coastal portions of the central Gulf Coast area at
   the start of the period.  This convection is forecast to shift
   gradually offshore through midday.

   Meanwhile, modest diurnal destabilization is expected ahead of the
   advancing cold front -- from the southern New England to the
   Southeast -- as a seasonably moist (60s dewpoints) boundary-layer
   airmass undergoes daytime heating.

   Large-scale ascent is forecast to remain rather weak east of the
   Appalachians, with the north-central U.S. upper low shifting
   northeastward into western Ontario.  As such, only modest mid-level
   height falls will overspread the East.  Still, weak ascent focused
   along the surface cold front should support development of scattered
   to isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.  

   With the upper low remaining well to the northwest, the strongest
   flow aloft will remain well to the cool side of the surface warm
   sector.  However, with quasi-unidirectional west-southwesterly flow
   through the lower half of the troposphere, potential for locally
   organized/fast-moving storms and/or storm clusters appears to exist.
    The greatest potential for a few stronger cells -- capable of
   producing a few strong/severe wind gusts -- appears to be most
   likely over portions of southern New England and into parts of the
   Mid-Atlantic region.  As such, a small SLGT risk area is being added
   to this area.  Elsewhere, risk for wind -- and possibly marginal
   hail -- appears lower, warranting maintenance of the existing MRGL
   risk.

   ..Goss.. 04/13/2022

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