Apr 28, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 28 06:02:32 UTC 2022 (20220428 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220428 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220428 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 35,631 2,383,919 Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Topeka, KS...Edmond, OK...Salina, KS...
SLIGHT 111,650 7,024,595 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...
MARGINAL 97,917 5,972,322 Fort Worth, TX...Des Moines, IA...Springfield, MO...Denton, TX...Lewisville, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220428 0600 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 35,008 2,306,237 Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Topeka, KS...Edmond, OK...Manhattan, KS...
10 % 35,518 2,362,918 Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Topeka, KS...Edmond, OK...Manhattan, KS...
5 % 95,483 6,284,688 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...
2 % 78,693 3,393,884 Denton, TX...Sioux City, IA...Blue Springs, MO...Keller, TX...Sherman, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220428 0600 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 147,358 9,398,957 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...
5 % 97,751 5,610,913 Fort Worth, TX...Des Moines, IA...Springfield, MO...Denton, TX...Lewisville, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220428 0600 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 103,386 5,361,567 Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Topeka, KS...
30 % 35,564 2,320,034 Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Topeka, KS...Edmond, OK...Salina, KS...
15 % 111,362 6,963,797 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...
5 % 97,907 5,743,240 Fort Worth, TX...Des Moines, IA...Springfield, MO...Denton, TX...Lewisville, TX...
   SPC AC 280602

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0102 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
   OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND
   NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible Friday
   afternoon into Friday night across portions of the southern and
   central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

   ...Synopsis...

   A negative-tilt mid/upper trough over the Rockies will eject
   eastward into the Plains on Friday. Forecast guidance has trended a
   bit further south with this system over the past 1-2 days.
   Additionally, guidance is less aggressive with developing an upper
   low over the northern/central Plains, maintaining an open wave at
   least through early evening. These trends will result in stronger
   large-scale ascent and increasing vertical shear overspreading
   NE/KS/OK by late afternoon. A surface low will deepen as it shifts
   eastward across western/central KS through Friday evening, before
   lifting northeast toward western IA by Saturday morning. A surface
   dryline will extend south/southwest from the low across central
   KS/OK into west-central TX. Southerly low-level flow will maintain
   strong moist advection ahead of the dryline and generally low to mid
   60s F dewpoints are expected across OK/KS and into southeast NE. A
   cold front will surge east/southeast during the afternoon into
   Friday night, becoming positioned from southwest IA to eastern OK
   and north-central TX by Saturday morning. 

   While some uncertainty remains regarding the warm sector and
   midlevel capping, the overall pattern suggests a couple of focused
   areas for severe thunderstorms are possible. One area being near the
   surface low/triple point across parts of northern KS into southern
   NE. The second being during late afternoon/early evening along the
   surface dryline from central KS into north-central OK. Finally,
   additional storms are likely to develop along the eastward-advancing
   cold front overnight, though this activity may be elevated. 

   ...Parts of southeast NE into central/eastern KS and OK...

   Much of the higher-quality warm sector will be focused roughly
   across the eastern half of OK/KS into far southeast NE where
   southerly low-level flow to around 1 km AGL is forecast. This will
   maintain a moist airmass east of the dryline. Some forecast
   guidance, particularly the operational NAM, maintains rather cool
   temperatures across the warm sector with cloudiness prevailing
   through the day. However, this appears to be an outlier compared to
   most other guidance, with NAM surface high temperatures perhaps 5-10
   deg F too cool. This is resulting in a capping inversion that is
   likely too strong. Modified forecast soundings for warmer surface
   temperatures do result in erosion of the cap. Therefore, while some
   capping may limit storm coverage, it is anticipated that at least a
   few supercells will develop in a narrow corridor along the dryline
   by late afternoon/early evening. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and
   elongated hodographs above favorably-curved low-levels indicate
   significant hail potential with these storms. Furthermore, steep
   low-level lapse rates and moderate 0-3 km MLCAPE values amid
   increasing SRH as a low-level jet increases during the evening,
   indicate that tornadoes will also be possible, a couple of which may
   be significant (EF 2+). Of note, most CAMs guidance appears to leave
   an outflow boundary across far southern KS associated with Thursday
   night/early Friday morning convection shifting east into MO. This
   boundary would extend west to east, perpendicular to the dryline and
   could be a further area of focus for severe thunderstorm development
   during the late afternoon. 

   The southward extent of higher risk probability is uncertain, but
   generally will decrease with southward extent across Oklahoma as
   stronger ascent will be focused to the north and the influence of
   the cap will be greater.

   A second round of convection may develop during the mid/late evening
   along the eastward-advancing cold front. This activity will likely
   be elevated and become linear, though some isolated hail threat
   could continue eastward into MO. 

   ...Portions of northwest KS into western/central NE...

   Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
   deepening surface low across northwest KS by mid-afternoon.
   Boundary-layer moisture will be lower quality compared to further
   east, with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F. However, very steep
   midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability. Effective
   bulk shear values will support initial supercells capable of large 
   to very large hail. With time, this convection may develop into
   bowing line segments as convection shifts northeast into NE.

   ..Leitman.. 04/28/2022

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