May 9, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 9 06:00:04 UTC 2022 (20220509 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220509 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220509 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 49,816 1,062,737 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...Big Spring, TX...
MARGINAL 96,097 6,293,668 Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220509 0600 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 34,636 5,228,505 Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Green Bay, WI...Kenosha, WI...Waukegan, IL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220509 0600 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 49,708 1,067,934 Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...
5 % 95,756 6,292,030 Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Amarillo, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Green Bay, WI...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220509 0600 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 49,708 1,067,934 Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...
5 % 95,756 6,292,030 Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Amarillo, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Green Bay, WI...
   SPC AC 090600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Mon May 09 2022

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   WESTERN TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms may evolve across portions of the western Texas
   vicinity late in the day Tuesday, accompanied by hail/wind risk.  A
   couple of severe storms bringing all-hazards potential may also
   develop across the central/eastern Wisconsin area during the
   afternoon.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper low is forecast to linger just off the East Coast Tuesday,
   while a trough remains over the West.  In between, ridging will
   remain over the central part of the country, expanding northwestward
   with time in the wake of a short-wave troughing that will shift
   northeastward into central Canada with time.

   At the surface, the main feature will be a persistent baroclinic
   zone extending from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward
   across the Plains and into the Southwest states through the period.

   ...Western Texas vicinity...
   Modest large-scale ascent spreading across the southern High Plains
   region is expected, as a weak vort max shifts northeastward out of
   northwestern Mexico and across New Mexico/West Texas.  As this
   occurs in tandem with diurnal heating/mixing, at least local
   breaches of the cap at the base of the EML layer are expected,
   leading to late-afternoon isolated storm initiation.

   Given steep lapse rates atop the area, developing storms would be
   fueled by ample instability.  This combined with moderate/veering
   flow with height suggests multicell/weak supercell organization,
   with attendant risks for damaging winds and hail.  Wind potential
   would be augmented by the deep/dry late-afternoon boundary layer,
   facilitating sub-cloud evaporation and thus potential downdraft
   acceleration.  Storm should peak in coverage/intensity by early
   evening, and then slowly diminish diurnally.

   ...Upper Great Lakes area...
   As a cold front edges slowly southeastward across the Upper
   Mississippi Valley area, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer
   will result in moderate destabilization.  However, weak large-scale
   subsidence should help maintain capping into the afternoon.  Still,
   various CAM guidance continues to indicate that isolated storms will
   evolve in the vicinity of the front -- from the Upper Peninsula of
   Michigan southward across Wisconsin.

   At this time, the greatest potential for true surface-based
   convection appears to exist across east-central and southeastern
   Wisconsin late in the afternoon, where a supercell or two could
   develop.  Such a storm would be capable of producing large hail
   and/or damaging winds, with a tornado also possible.  Elsewhere,
   farther north/northwest, it appears that storms may remain elevated
   just to the cool side of the boundary, where a stronger updraft or
   two could produce marginally severe hail.

   At this time, will introduce only MRGL risk across this area --
   mainly due to questions surrounding capping -- and subsequent
   uncertainties regarding storm coverage.  With ridging aloft progged
   to expand northwestward with time, resulting large-scale subsidence
   should at least partially counteract mixing-induced cap erosion,
   which should limit coverage of convection.

   ..Goss.. 05/09/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z