May 9, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 9 17:30:59 UTC 2022 (20220509 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220509 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220509 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 78,025 4,053,086 Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Green Bay, WI...
MARGINAL 97,722 7,543,317 Amarillo, TX...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...Wichita Falls, TX...Elgin, IL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220509 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 48,352 5,446,643 Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Green Bay, WI...Kenosha, WI...Waukegan, IL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220509 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 74,398 4,045,338 Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Green Bay, WI...
5 % 95,569 7,527,909 Amarillo, TX...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...Wichita Falls, TX...Elgin, IL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220509 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 13,706 218,138 Odessa, TX...West Odessa, TX...
15 % 69,169 3,500,633 Madison, WI...Lubbock, TX...Green Bay, WI...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
5 % 96,411 4,606,453 Milwaukee, WI...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Kenosha, WI...
   SPC AC 091730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Mon May 09 2022

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST INTO
   NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND OVER PARTS OF WISCONSIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across portions
   of the western Texas vicinity late in the day Tuesday, accompanied
   by a hail/wind risk.  A couple of severe storms bringing all-hazards
   potential may also develop across the central/eastern Wisconsin area
   during the afternoon and early evening.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   A lower-latitude mid-level vorticity maximum is forecast to migrate
   northeastward from northern MX through the Permian Basin during the
   period.  Modest large-scale ascent will likewise overspread the
   southern High Plains during peak heating as diurnal heating weakens
   the capping inversion.  Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to
   develop by mid afternoon in terrain focused areas of southwest TX
   with other isolated to scattered storms developing by the late
   afternoon/early evening.  Model guidance has trended towards higher
   storm coverage compared to previously forecast, particularly over
   southwest TX northward through the South Plains/Caprock.  Forecast
   soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8.5-9.0 deg C/km)
   atop a moisture-rich low-level airmass.  Upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg
   MLCAPE seems plausible.  Strong veering of flow will lead to
   substantial directional shear (30-40 kt effective shear) across
   parts of the Big Bend/Permian Basin, where supercells are more
   probable.  Weaker deep-layer shear farther north will favor
   organized multicells/transient supercell structure during the
   evening before evolving into linear clusters and severe gusts
   becoming the primary severe hazard late.  

   ...WI vicinity...
   A cold front is expected to move slowly southeastward across the
   Upper Mississippi Valley area during the day beneath neutral/weak
   rising mid-level heights.  The implied weak forcing setup will
   likely maintain a capping inversion through the early-mid afternoon.
    However, strong heating will contribute to a weakened/local erosion
   of the cap by late afternoon.  

   Continuing with the prior forecast, it seems the greatest potential
   for surface-based convection appears to exist across central WI,
   where a supercell or two could develop before growing upscale into a
   linear cluster.  Ample deep-layer shear/buoyancy would conditionally
   support a supercell being capable of all severe hazards. 
   Considerable uncertainty remains possible upscale growth during the
   evening impacting the southern WI/northern IL vicinity.  Elsewhere,
   farther north/northwest, it appears that storms may remain elevated
   just to the cool side of the boundary, where a stronger updraft or
   two could produce marginally severe hail.

   ..Smith.. 05/09/2022

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