SPC AC 151718

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1218 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
   VIRGINIA INTO NEW YORK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms are expected Monday from central New
   York/western New England southward into the Carolinas. Damaging
   winds, hail, and few tornadoes will be possible through about 00Z.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough will move quickly from the OH Valley toward the
   Mid Atlantic during the day, taking on a negative tilt across New
   England after 00Z. Deep-layer wind fields will strengthen with this
   trough, with substantial large-scale ascent from VA into NY.

   A surface trough will deepen as it moves into eastern NY and PA,
   with dewpoints holding near 60 F within the zone of convergence.
   Farther south, the main cold front push will occur from MD into VA,
   coincident with a midlevel dry slot. Here, dewpoints around 65 F
   will be more common, with a plume of steep low-level lapse rates
   emanating out of the southwest.

   ...Northeast and Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas...
   Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday morning from western PA
   into WV along the developing cold front, and SBCIN will likely be
   removed by 15Z due to cool 700 mb temperatures. Storms are expected
   to become severe between 15-18Z as they develop into south-central
   NY, central PA, and toward far northern VA. MLCAPE is expected to
   average 1000-1500 J/kg, with effective deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt.
   Mixed storm modes may occur, including supercells and QLCS. Damaging
   wind gusts will be most likely. The tornado threat is expected to
   increase during the late afternoon as the surface low/trough
   deepens, low-level lapse rates are maximized, and effective SRH
   increases to around 200 m2/s2. Cool temperatures aloft and elongated
   hodographs will also favor sporadic hail in the stronger cells.

   Although shear will be weaker farther south into the Carolinas,
   strong heating and plentiful moisture will result in 2000 J/kg
   MUCAPE with sufficient westerly shear to support multicells with
   wind and hail threat. A few cells may linger toward 00-02Z.

   ...East-central NM into the western South Plains and TX Panhandle...

   A subtle shortwave disturbance is forecast to move across NM during
   the day, where cool midlevel temperatures and modest flow aloft will
   persist. Strong heating will lead to steep deep-layer lapse rates,
   with high-based storms expected late in the afternoon through
   evening, moving from NM into TX. Capping with eastern extent will
   likely limit overall coverage, but a small area of wind damage and
   hail may occur as storms tend to cluster and produce substantial
   outflows roughly 00-03Z.

   ..Jewell.. 05/15/2022

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