May 21, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 21 17:25:12 UTC 2022 (20220521 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220521 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220521 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 64,063 5,372,465 Albany, NY...Scranton, PA...Schenectady, NY...Troy, NY...Binghamton, NY...
MARGINAL 349,013 89,117,913 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Jacksonville, FL...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220521 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 6,586 7,780 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
2 % 44,627 3,121,967 Albany, NY...Schenectady, NY...Troy, NY...Pittsfield, MA...Concord, NH...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220521 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 63,468 5,404,312 Albany, NY...Scranton, PA...Schenectady, NY...Troy, NY...Binghamton, NY...
5 % 349,323 88,976,905 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Jacksonville, FL...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220521 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 46,485 2,704,056 Albany, NY...Schenectady, NY...Troy, NY...Pittsfield, MA...Burlington, VT...
5 % 85,617 42,055,830 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Newark, NJ...
   SPC AC 211725

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE NORTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe storms with wind damage and hail will be possible
   across parts of the Northeast on Sunday. A marginal severe threat
   may also develop from the Carolina Piedmont to the Gulf Coast
   states.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad mid-level trough will graze by the northeast CONUS as a
   surface cold front, draped from New England to the Mid South,
   progresses southeastward. A moist low-level airmass will exist ahead
   of the cold front, supporting scattered thunderstorm development
   across the eastern U.S. Sunday afternoon. A relatively more
   appreciable severe threat exists across New England in the presence
   of stronger vertical wind shear and deep-layer ascent. Scattered
   thunderstorms will also be possible across the Interior West during
   the afternoon given the passage of a mid-level trough. Scattered
   thunderstorm development may also occur within a warm-air advection
   regime across the southern Plains Sunday night.

   ...New England into the Mid Atlantic...
   At least scattered thunderstorm development is expected to occur
   along a cold front across New England by early afternoon. Boundary
   layer mixing will encourage 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates,
   contributing to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest mid-level flow grazing
   the Northeast will also contribute to 30-50 kts of effective bulk
   shear, supporting multicellular/transient supercell development,
   with large hail and damaging gusts the main concerns. Some stronger
   low-level shear is evident across northern Maine, with modest
   low-level hodograph curvature and length contributing to a locally
   greater chance of a brief tornado. Deep-layer ascent decreases with
   southward extent into the Mid Atlantic. However guidance consensus
   depicts ample buoyancy amid isolated to scattered thunderstorm
   development and isolated instances of large hail/damaging gusts are
   possible with the strongest storms.

   ...Carolina Piedmont to the Gulf Coast States...
   Tropospheric wind fields are expected to be weaker compared to
   points farther north. Nonetheless, adequate heating of a moist
   low-level airmass will boost low-level lapse rates above 7 C/km
   across much of the Southeast Sunday afternoon. Scattered
   thunderstorm development is anticipated, and a threat of damaging
   gusts with wet downbursts will accompany stronger storms.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/21/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z