Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Newark, NJ...
SPC AC 211725
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with wind damage and hail will be possible
across parts of the Northeast on Sunday. A marginal severe threat
may also develop from the Carolina Piedmont to the Gulf Coast
states.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will graze by the northeast CONUS as a
surface cold front, draped from New England to the Mid South,
progresses southeastward. A moist low-level airmass will exist ahead
of the cold front, supporting scattered thunderstorm development
across the eastern U.S. Sunday afternoon. A relatively more
appreciable severe threat exists across New England in the presence
of stronger vertical wind shear and deep-layer ascent. Scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible across the Interior West during
the afternoon given the passage of a mid-level trough. Scattered
thunderstorm development may also occur within a warm-air advection
regime across the southern Plains Sunday night.
...New England into the Mid Atlantic...
At least scattered thunderstorm development is expected to occur
along a cold front across New England by early afternoon. Boundary
layer mixing will encourage 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates,
contributing to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest mid-level flow grazing
the Northeast will also contribute to 30-50 kts of effective bulk
shear, supporting multicellular/transient supercell development,
with large hail and damaging gusts the main concerns. Some stronger
low-level shear is evident across northern Maine, with modest
low-level hodograph curvature and length contributing to a locally
greater chance of a brief tornado. Deep-layer ascent decreases with
southward extent into the Mid Atlantic. However guidance consensus
depicts ample buoyancy amid isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development and isolated instances of large hail/damaging gusts are
possible with the strongest storms.
...Carolina Piedmont to the Gulf Coast States...
Tropospheric wind fields are expected to be weaker compared to
points farther north. Nonetheless, adequate heating of a moist
low-level airmass will boost low-level lapse rates above 7 C/km
across much of the Southeast Sunday afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorm development is anticipated, and a threat of damaging
gusts with wet downbursts will accompany stronger storms.
..Squitieri.. 05/21/2022
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